Roy ‘The Boy’ Findlay is an excellent poker player and a great poker commentator as well. I met him once in Barcelona, Spain at the World Heads-Up Poker Championships in 2007…our mutual friend Don Fagan joined us….it was a great night of wonderful story-telling. Roy did all the work….recently he sent me this…and said we could post it on our blog as long as we left the Bet Victor mention in. Get this…it’s about Formula One. So here it is…a submission from Roy the Boy:
Mercedes are happy but punters may fancy a stroll.
On Sunday afternoon, clutching one betting slip with Sebastian Vettel etched on it and another with the phrase ‘each-way’ above the name Lewis Hamilton, I was as smug as a slug sat on a lettuce leaf on a rainy summer’s day.
By Sunday evening, following the calamitous British Grand Prix, thick clouds had gathered and I was left scratching my head until a bald patch had appeared.
I’m a great believer in the ethos that every cloud, no matter how dark, has a 40-watt bayonet-fitting incandescent candle-shaped bulb glowing in it somewhere. And it’s true.
This morning, after someone twisted my dimmer-switch, I took the wife’s car down to the garage, put a brand new set of Pirellis on it, gave her my last £100 and told her to dash down the motorway to the nearest Marks & Spencer’s, buy a summer dress, and hurry back home to show me how it looks. Oh, and a reminder, “don’t slow down for speed humps or curbs.”
Who knows what will happen? Who knows if she will return? It’s a little like this F1 season where nothing seems to make sense and the results are very much going against us. Considering recent form, I just know Mrs B. will be back presently and probably clutching a speeding ticket.
So this weekend it’s the Nurburgring version of the German F1 GP. Can you believe its 13 years since a disgruntled Mercedes employee decided to take a stroll up the track during the German Grand Prix? I’m led to believe all Mercedes staff are happy enough nowadays but more people are betting on this F1 game than ever and I can testify us punters get very discontented.
I’ve been considering the blindfolded pin in the paper approach this weekend as there’s little solid form to go on when it comes to Nurburgring. Just three recent F1 races have been staged at this 5.148km circuit. It is, mercifully, described as ‘kind to tyres’ but decisive pointers are still hard to identify even before considering the odd exploding gear box and frequent exploding tyres. My bald patch grows bigger.
There are some telling similarities between the German track and Silverstone. The longest flat-out stretch at the British track is 890 metres, at Nurburgring its 800 metres for example. Top speeds are nearly identical as is the time spent at full throttle (62%/64%). Nurburgring is not dissimilar to Monaco either. The number of gear changes per-lap is near identical (54/58) and the brakes are severely tested at both.
With Nico Rosberg taking the gold medal at the above venues allied to three pole positions this season, in a car whose qualifying figures now read: 3-6-4-6-1-4-1-4-1-2-1-2-2-4-1-2, doubtlessly the winds of confidence are billowing in his sails.
Meanwhile Ferrari must be feeling like a character from Sam Taylor’s Rime of the Ancient Mariner. Their qualifying figures are starting to look like someone’s lotto numbers. Early season starting positions of 4-5-2-3-3-5-3-6 are now a distant memory and the scarlet car is currently starting in an average position of 11.6.
I’ve heard the expression “best driving pairing on the grid” in regards to the Mercedes driver coupling aplenty in recent weeks and it’s fair comment. With an ever improving car, Betvictor.com’s odds of 11/2 about them conspiring to land the Constructors Championship for their team is very attractive. They were available at 20/1 earlier in the year and are surely more likely to lift the accolade than the 15.4 percent which is what those current odds equate to.
If I’m to have a bet this week this would probably be it as punting on this weekend’s race, considering the on-going Pirelli tyre soap opera, looks perilous.
A final note regarding the dynamic duo… At the conclusion of the German GP Mercedes will surely be at the critical point where a decision has to be made on who is their No. 1 driver for the remainder of the season. You would presume it will be decided purely on who has the greater chance of chasing down Vettel’s Championship lead. Therein this is a big weekend for both.
Cheap Seat Upgrade
Having pre-empted Webber’s departure announcement last week, I’d now say Massa is around a month away from officially enjoying his last season in the sport. Amidst all the furore as to who will replace Mark Webber at Red Bull no one has suggested Kimi may yet return to the Ferrari team who have a long history of exclusively appointing, and sometimes reappointing, only established drivers.
Two good seats going begging and there’s a lack of quality drivers to fill them? These are indeed strange times as is the 6/1 about Daniel Ricciardo getting the Red Bull call-up which surely has to be a value betting proposition.
This Week’s Selections:
Mercedes to win the Constructors Championship: 100 points 11/2 (with Betvictor.com)
This week’s investment: 100 points
Current profit/loss: Level points.
(Thanks Roy…nicely written. Thoroughly enjoyed it)